Conventional wisdom report: May 6th

by Micah Hart

I was thinking about this in the wake of last week’s dust-up between the Atlanta Hawks and Orlando Sentinel columnist Mike Bianchi. Hawks beat writer (and friend of the podcast) Mike Cunningham mentioned in a blog post that it was interesting that Bianchi was so down on the Hawks at the time, especially given that after Game 5 of the series he wrote:

“The Magic are now down in this series 3-1 and it’s all but over. Does anybody out there really, honestly believe the Magic can rally back from 3-1 against a talented and athletic Hawks team?”

I come here not to bury Bianchi though, nor to praise him, but merely to point out that in the NBA Playoffs, the tide can turn very quickly. A team is left for dead (Dallas after blowing a 23-point lead in Portland), then suddenly they are unbeatable (topping the two-time defending champs on their home court — twice — will do that for you). It’s more volatile than the stock market.

So each day until the end of the NBA Finals, we’ll be taking a look at the conventional wisdom of the moment — which team is currently the favorite to win it all, and which team should be ashamed to still be putting on their jerseys.

Start planning the parade:

Miami Heat

John Schuhmann pointed this out yesterday in a column on NBA.com – Celtics fans can complain about missing Kendrick Perkins all they want as they watch LeBron James and Dwyane Wade sashay to the basket, but in 240 minutes over the last four years the duo has shot 67% from within five feet of the basket with Perkins on the floor.

I know the Mavericks are up 2-0 on the Lakers, but they’ve still got some emotional baggage to overcome. If there’s a favorite today, it’s gotta be the Heat.

Give it up already:

L.A. Lakers

In the history of the NBA, only three teams have ever rebounded from 0-2 where both losses came on their homecourt: Lakers over Warriors in 1969, Rockets over Suns in 1994, and Mavs over Rockets in 2005. So, it is doable, but if it’s to be done, it’s going to have to happen in part without Ron Artest, who was suspended for Game 3 for his hard foul on JJ Barea in the waning moments of Wednesday night’s Game 2.

Peace out, L.A.

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69 Comments

  1. beantown says:

    the lakers and celtics may be getting to the end of their era. but i believe they will add a couple pieces this coming up free agentcy. i think dwight howard would be a good fit in boston for the starting center. which they are in desperate need for. i also think they need better backups for allan and garnett. they probably wont find those pieces in the draft thats why they should be thinking trade. as for the lakers they might want to trade pau for someone hes not playing to his full capabilities. also maybe replace blake and barnes

    • Andrew says:

      You think Dwight Howard would be a good fit for starting center? I don’t know man…thats a bold statement…

    • BurnBeans says:

      hahahaha!!! LoL!!!

    • AreYouMad?! says:

      Beantown, you are gonna be one sad celtics fan for the next decade. Join me in Minnesota, we can talk about being the worst in the league :)

    • Jonathan says:

      LOL Howard would be a good fit at center in boston? Would he really? haha.. I dunno man.. Hes kinda small.. I dont think any team would really want him… hahah the best center in the world would be a good fit… yeah Michael Jordan wasnt much of a basketball player was he? haha :D

    • tron says:

      @beantown do you know anything about the nba salary system? celtics adding dwight howard? 1st of all hes under contract next yr and has a player option the next and wouldn’t settle for anythin under $15 mil… 2nd of all do u understand that there is a real possibility of a lockout next season and if there is a season there may be a hard cap? teams like LA, boston, spurs, (insert team here with crazy payroll) wont be able to add anyone, there will be no luxury tax, no mid level exception, once u fill up the cap THAT IS IT… so teams with large payrolls now that cant win will only be able to trade / lose players through free agency, NOT ADD THEM

      fin

    • yui says:

      Lakers are 3peat right now. 0-3 babyyy! Phil Jackson should swallow his words against the Miami Heat.

    • afterkwiss says:

      I agree with you on the Barnes/Blake replacement, but Howard to Boston? Neh, not gonna happen.

    • RT says:

      i highly doubt celtics are getting howard, and i highly doubt lakers trade pau

    • LakerFan says:

      Let’s all say reasonable statements please. The Celtics are obviously going to have the same line up as they did for the past 2 years. All they’re going to change is the bench and maybe add a center. Shaq is done for. The “Big Three” is going to retire soon. Which means their rebuilding process is going to start very soon around Rondo.

  2. Darth Jesus says:

    Lakers? I hope that’s a joke. Lakers aren’t even going to make the WCF. Even IF they made it to the finals it’s HIGHLY unlikely that they’ll win. The Heat, Bulls, or Thunder would destroy them in a 7 game series.

  3. baller says:

    the mavs beat the rockets in 2005 not the suns….

  4. MVP4Nash says:

    The Mavs did not beat the Suns in 2005! Phoenix actually won that series 4-2 and moved on to the Conf,Finals,where they lost to the Spurs. Just saying :)

  5. andrew says:

    Lakers are going to win the championship. Nuff said.

  6. boom says:

    I think they give too much fanfare on the 2-0 of the heat. THEY ARE WINS FROM THEIR HOMECOURT.
    I am more impressed of the 0-2 by dallas, ON THE ROAD.

    Too much hype.

  7. Neil Steiner says:

    “Peace out, L.A.” -Dumb.

    Lakers in 7.

  8. david says:

    fyi miami came back from 0-2 in the 2006 finals

    more knowledge plz.

  9. Colin says:

    wow do some research nba.com, those were not the three series in which a team rebounded from an 0-2 deficit on its own home floor. It was Mavericks-Rockets 2005, Suns-Lakers 1993, and the third won was right. The Mavericks in 2005 did not have home court advantage over the Suns in 2005, and the Rockets did not have homecourt advantage over the Suns either, so. . .yeah NBA.com apparently knows nothing of NBA history

  10. John says:

    The heat is the team to beat. I honestly think they’ll win the championship

  11. john Follent says:

    ^^^^^^IF dwight howards joins the celtics, the rest of the teams may as well go home

  12. Vegas says:

    You are wrong there! You said only 3 teams have ever rebounded from 0-2 where both losses came on their homecourt, but you forgot to mention the 1993 Phoenix Suns. They went 0-2 against the Lakers, losing both games in Phoenix. They came back and won that series, and went on to make a deep playoff run into the finals v the Bulls.

  13. Herr says:

    I’m not ready to count the Lakers out. We all know the Mavs. They’re not playing well at all, LAL is just playing that much worse. LAL can rebound, and I know they will. Homecourt means nothing to them. They’ll win where-ever they damn well please. Regardless, after this season, if they lose tonight, their championship runs are dead. Their bench sucks. Pau Gasol is hopeless. Kobe is only getting older. Jackson is leaving, Fisher likely will retire…. and so forth.

    The Heat meanwhile are my favorites to win it. I’m not a fan of the Heat, but if they beat the Celtics, they’ll beat the Bulls. Bulls haven’t flipped any switches in the playoffs. They’re playing like they did in the regular season. They also beat the Heat 3 times when the Heat weren’t 100%. Now the Heat are, and they have indeed flipped the switch. Bulls have been awful these playoffs honestly.

    I’d also put OKC on the “give it up already” list. They’re not going to beat Memphis.

  14. Jose Calderon is MVP says:

    Stop Dirtty Dirk! Can someone get Gasol some good looks? Still can’t count out the Lakers or Celtics….. Miami heat is the team to beat! Lebron and Wade manhandled the Celtics twice! KG doesnt need to be a “Jerk to win, didn’t he learn yet.

  15. PAULPIERCEISAPUNK! says:

    well all I can say is Paul Pierce spoke too soon.. I think it is already haunting him about what he said before..which is “It was a pleasure in bringing my talents to South Beach.” Paul Pierce is nothing but a punk!

  16. alex says:

    did u seriously just say that the celtics trade for howard while keeping allen and garnett, and obviously paul pierce. who would you trade? rondo? the team again becomes useless, because rondo is keeping them afloat. and rondo-howard? the magic arent on crack, man. another thing being that the celtic payroll is through the roof, well god i have no idea how you can possible imagine howard on the celtics

  17. tata says:

    I think the hardest team to beat is Memphis. They’ve already taken out the number one seed and taken home court from the number four seed. They are really tough to beat because they pound the ball in the post and stay with it. Over the course of a series the jumpers come and go but posting up is a consistent threat.

  18. M4A1 says:

    the end of lakers and boston. and will be replaces by heat era. haha. i still believe that it will be miami and dallas at the finals. just like in 2006. miami heat are the true champions.

    • Karenny says:

      I remember that coebmack against the Bucks in November ’72. My father and I were going crazy in the living room watching that game! I knew the Knicks would be the team to beat after that game! These guys were all deserving of the title Mr. Knick and not Patrick GAME SEVEN INDIANA ’95 FINGER ROLL MISSED Ewing!

  19. plok says:

    i love the lakers but there’s a problem with the team…they are not like that when they play the hornets…there are issues among players and coaches..they are down 3-0 to the mavs…certainly there’s a problem…

  20. Fair playah says:

    as for my personal opinion, Dallas is the more dangerous team right now.. The roster is complete and their bench is really performing well..obviously i am a Mavs fan..Go Mavs!!!!!

  21. xtian says:

    Correction: Its Mavs over Rockets, not Suns, in 2005.

  22. 813snoogy says:

    o.j mayo and dwight howard to L.a lets gooooooooooo

  23. 80s90sBaller says:

    OKC Thunder Vs. Miami Heat in the Finals, what you think?

    OKC for the Win!

  24. LakersFaaan says:

    Did i hear someone say:
    Bynum and Brown for Dwight Howard?
    Gasol for Chris Paul….?

  25. Jayson says:

    Thank you for mentioning the Kendrick Perkins thing. To be honest, last time I checked this Celtics team had four all stars and not one of them was the big man in the middle. Granted the Celtics need a solid big man and Perkins was the best bet, but they have had all their successes without relying on Perkins. I was surprised at all the naysayers after the Perkins trade, but unfortunately I think the Celtics believed all the press. If they really relied on Perkins that much, then the all-star balloting chose the wrong four guys. And if the Celtics really believe Perkins was the answer, they don’t have the right to go deep into the playoffs. (this is coming from a HUGE Celtics fan). Big respect to Dwyane Wade for playing every possession like it’s the game winner . Hope the Celtics remember they used to play like that too.

  26. YouHIGH? says:

    Micah Heart…..This article is the most one-sided LeBron loving joke of an article I have ever seen. My 2 yr old daughter could write up a better analysis than this. Just forget the Bulls and the Thunder and the Mavs, oh and writing off LA/Boston is never smart. Shame on you.

  27. Whaaat??? says:

    lol she doesn’t even mention the bulls bahaha

  28. rodwick says:

    It was the MAvs against the Rockets not against the Suns!
    get your facts straight and seriously, still going for that emotional baggage stuff??

  29. Ghost says:

    Boston Celtics are a bunch of crybabies. It really was a stupid move to trade Perk, but let’s say they haven’t… At this point, not a single soul on that roster is gonna matter against LBJ & DWade.

    Dirk deserves to be a champion.

    Kobe & Phil does not deserve another 3-peat.

    Boston does not deserve Dwight Howard.

    New York does.

  30. Tom says:

    um are you stupid beantown or something?? how the hell is dwight howard going to go to the celtics? your an idiot, there’s no way boston has that kind of money! howard would be in the highest pay bracket, omg i can’t believe you actually think that.

  31. Kenneth says:

    Dallas’ depth is killing the Los Angeles Lakers. Without its bench power, I think the Dallas will not conquer the Lakers. The rebounding skills of Dallas is also overpowering the Lakers. It is Dallas as its best that we have seen. If this continues in their team, I think they will make it to the NBA Finals.

  32. VS says:

    Why is everyone getting on the Miami bandwagon all of a sudden? They only won their 2 games at home against the C’s and it is gonna be a long series. Plus they still have to face adversity during these playoffs and we will see how they react.

  33. ....... says:

    now that there is some competition in the western conference its no doubt the lakers are 0-3

  34. Max says:

    I know it sounds crazy…. but maybe Phil made em lose these 3 games to go on and finish his career and be the first ever coach to come back from 3 games down…. just a crazy idea i know!!

  35. Chitown says:

    Keep heaping praise on LeBron and Wade. Proclaim the Heat NBA Champions. More importantly, keep sleeping on the Bulls and make them the underdogs. The road to the Eastern Conference title still goes through the home court of the team with the best regular season record and they just delivered a wake up call to the upstart Hawks. Game on.

  36. hahah... says:

    HEAT all day LAL will be swept 0-3 for LAL

  37. thejerr says:

    we (lakers) really didnt want to change this roster up when we had a chance before the trade deadline huh? now look, were down 3-0 against the choke artist of the playoffs, Lakers have been so much fail i dont think i cant stand to watch the final game…. cause you know they’re getting sweeped, at least its dirks team, all i can say

  38. ha says:

    hahah dwight howard in boston your dreaming buddy.. dwight howard is a good fit on any team..

  39. ryan dsouza says:

    lakers are in a bad situation

  40. vishu says:

    Ha ha this guy needs to get his facts right. Suns never lost to Dallas in 2005. Suns had homecourt and the series was tied at 1-1 after Dallas beat them in game 2 in Phoenix. Suns went on to win the series and go to the Conference Finals but then they lost to San Antonio Spurs.

  41. Rockme says:

    Really?dwight?to boston?you gotta be kidding me.no way that’s gonna happpen.

  42. nonbias says:

    About the previous comment: Lol seriously? dwight to boston?? that’s crazy. boston doesn’t have the cap space to pull that off unless they trade something of equal value. and when i say equal, i meant someone as young, as dominant, and as effective as dwight! no one like that in boston dude.

    About the ending of the lakers,boston and spurs era:
    Anyway, the end of the lakers and boston eras may dawn on the NBA now. LA still have some effective players on their roster so they’ll survive and still contend next season(not this season though, NOT with how Gasol is playing and P.S. — Im a laker fan)
    Boston however, will be surprisingly back to the level they were in when they only had Pierce on their roster, and again be a shadowed franchise — why say such a bold statement? because they are old. and they will rely heavily on the free agency market and luck in the draft if they are to get back to contending. I dare say tho that wont happen in the next 2 years.
    The spurs will survive to contend again next season, they still have one of the best coaches ever and they have proven that their young guns are better than most of the 2nd units in the league. If they get a superstar who can actually replace duncan in the near future. then they are not that bad in shape.

    Who’s my pick for the next era to emerge:
    Miami is the obvious choice, given the way LBJ and Wade are playing. they are young, strong, and hungry. they are fast. effective, and dominant in both ends of the floor (except during crunch time). as long as they get a better center, they are gonna be a force you dont wanna bump into.
    My 2nd pick is OKC. why pick a young upstart team? because of Durant and Westbrook. that duo can score. and not only that, they are tough to control. sure they cant win a championship yet, they need 1 more piece to win it — a great coach.
    My last pick is Chicago, the Bulls are back baby! Rose will lure stars to join him in his quest to win a championship. he already has a great support cast with him but it’s not enough for now — why? because several of them needs to mature first and handle tough pressures in clutch situations. im not saying they cant, but there is still room for improvement.

    So who’ll win it all this 2011?
    Tough pick between 3 teams — Dallas or Chicago or Miami — but i’ll go for Dallas, Dallas is a hungry team and also a mature team. That’s why they’re man handling a 2 time champion team right now. Their leaders are doing a great job in moving this team(Dirk and Kidd). and that’s something they have to be consistent about if they are to beat the beasts of the east.

  43. ricmeister says:

    james is coward, he cant be a star coz he needs wade and bosh to win. he cant be alone like the real man MJ

  44. Cameron says:

    Heres the bottom line….the lakers, celtics, spurs have had their time, David Stern is now helping the heat to win it all let’s be honest. Plus whats with these superstars joining each other, in the good old days superstars wanted to beat other superstars. If CP3 Joins the heat im never watching the NBA again, BOYCOTT

  45. beantown says:

    @ tom no im not stupid im just saying that in my opinion i think dwight would be a good fit in boston i didnt say they could afford him but cant i have my dream

  46. pogi says:

    dallas vs chicago finals ….dallas in 6

  47. gehk says:

    @ricmeister: MJ was alone? It’s not like the hall of famers Scottie Pippen and Dennis Rodman had anything to do with him, right?

  48. Ray says:

    I really feel that the winners of the Heat and Celtics series will be the champions!!

  49. ds says:

    @ricmeister seriously dont tell me MJ was alone cuz im pretty sure he had pippen, rodman, paxton he had the best bench players of that ERA, so he didnt do it alone no one has done it alone

  50. ds says:

    @beantown dwight is a good fit anywhere bro, in your opinion? really anyone would like to have dwight, i beleive he will end up in L.A next year or even playing with Chris paul, that is if everything get resolve with the lock down, but these guys like howard, paul, i think they have realized they are never gonna win it specially now that the NBA is changing since DWADE and LEBRON got together, so they know they will have to make some sacrifices and join other stars if they one to get that ring!!!

  51. miamiheat says:

    miami heat id the best team ever build.. hahaha..

  52. hardest critic says:

    any team where you mention the team and only 1 or 2 players come to mind would not be my pick of who wins the championship regardless of if it is dwayne wade or Lebron even if they are beating a more solid cast of a TEAM in boston . Chicago – not by any means would I pick them where one player comes to mind . I go with the deeps ( that would be the mavs ) If its mavs vs heat in the championship – there will be a different story this time . Mavs are a far greater team than what they once were facing the heat in the championship last time .

  53. hardest critic says:

    @Herr – I am the worst critic of the mavericks to say the least with their choking in the post season and yes I am also a fan but you saying that the mavericks arent playing well means you talk and dont watch what you spout wisdom out about . They are playing off the charts . Everyone is getting down on the lakers but to be honest most all shots were contested in game 3 and the mavericks kept hitting the bottom of the net , their 3 point shots are just shattering the lakers confidence with a well balanced attack of points in the paint as well as a very strong defense and I seriously doubt any team is spreading the floor like the mavericks are right now , Lakers are the back to back champs and 1 more game and the mavericks get at least a week of rest to bring in Caron Butler for the next series ( yeah thats right – an all star injured on our bench – youd think that most teams would be talking about him missing in action but fortunately the mavs are so deep that the headline hasnt even been created in any papers or sports websites – scary ) .

  54. yoursister says:

    memphis versus miami final….the nba powers that be will make sure miami wins an ugly fixed championship.

  55. beantown says:

    who is still under contrct in la? seriously i dont know. could they afford D.H.?

  56. hardest critic says:

    mavs= nowitzki , terry , chandler , kidd , howard , barrea , haywood , stevenson , butler , stojakovic . ……lol , check the stats – see how many of these players are in double figures in all 9 playoff games so far . See how many have pulled off double doubles . Once again ……scary . Now tell me who compares to it .

  57. hardest critic says:

    W/C : dallas vs oklahoma – dallas in 6

    Championship : dallas vs miami . dallas in 5 .

  58. hardest critic says:

    heres a better question for ya beantown – who will the lakers get if Phil Jackson retires ? I dont think even if it were possible for the lakers to get Dwight – would it even make a difference with a big question mark at who head coach is ? Lakers won what lakers won in the past because of Phil Jackson . A good coach causes the supporting crew to also be a serious threat and that is what Phil Jackson was best at . Not all about the stars – its the supporting crew that counts , line changes , fresh legs . Good coaching